#1: Solyndra now seems too big to fail. Sound familiar? Federal loan gurantees and a portfolio of deep-pocketed investors does not suggest a strongly grounded technology. It reflects a herd of insecurity duped by a gimmicky idea.
Solyndra has a poor product which upholds only marginal barriers in a market that will be disrupted by BIPV within 5 years.
Solyndra is banking on its innovative tube design to capture more light on CIGS-coated tubes. Replacing one is like replacing a fluorescent bulb. At first glance it sounds sweet. The efficiency of these panels is somewhere around 12% (depending on who reports), so at second glance sounds even sweeter. Take a third glance.
The bitter truth is that Solyndra's approach over traditional panels is incremental at best. Solyndra's core competency resides in an easily duplicated form-factor which provides little to no improvement over incumbent technologies. 12% efficiencies are already hitting market at module level from flexible CIGS-based GlobalSolar (and might I add NREL certified 16% champion MODULE). And there's not much stopping company's like Global from rolling their cells into a similar structure (besides some IP of course). NanoSolar's CEO even went so far as to make a tube panel in his spare time.
So where's the real value proposition? Solyndra will have a tough time winning a race to the bottom with First Solar or Nanosolar on manufacturing front. Their coating techniques are nothing special and already relatively bottomed out in terms of cost. So what's left to improve? Efficiency. But this ain't gonna happen either. There is no foreseeable path to efficiency improvements with their core technology. A different shaped tube? A whiter roof? So to make their story Solyndra proclaims its value proposition is "in improved balance of systems cost"--the cost of installation, tracking, power regulation, etc. Don't bite yet.
If this is truly the company's value proposition I would be a weary investor. Perhaps the groundshaking truth is the potential of the base of all these technologies will come crumbling down with building integrated photovoltaics (i.e. PV shingles, windows, etc.). BIPV will completely disrupt any panel-mounted technology on commercial and residential markets once cost per watt is competitive. Larger movers such as Dow Chemical are already making strategic entries into this space. They drop a heavy hammer. More importantly the practicality of system maintenance is scary: Solyndra relies on a "white roof" to reflect onto the tubes. This is a problem. Who's going to keep it clean? Think of the size of the market in teeth whitening products-for something that is already cleaned 2-3 times a day.
For more info, Greentech has done a nice job here.
#2: NanoSolar, also a CIGS-based technology
We already know how NanoSolar's CEO feels about the proclaimed #1 VC funded startup Solyndra. Despite all the smack NanoSolar's CEO talks, the fact is, he's right. NanoSolar has a low-cost reel-to-reel CIGS production process that is hard to compete with, and once they hit the road with this bad boy First Solar is going to feel some price pressure.
CIGS, being one of three major thin film materials (a-Si, CdTe, and CIGS) is typically deposited by physical vaport deposition (PVD) processes like sputtering (think of the inside metallic coating in potato chip bags). Vacuum processes require capital intensive equipment but are the standard because it's easier to get film uniformity over large areas. Nanosolar figured out how to make CIGS with a wet chemical processes which is cheap and fast. It's hard to compete with this by traditional means unless you do what First Solar is doing--scale the h$#% out of it.
#3: SolFocus
CPV is awesome. The jury is still out on whether this market will grow or if it's a transient opportunity that will be squeeze out once thin film efficiencies improve. The fact is that CPV is grounded in a fundamentally sound technology which is very effective in large-scale utility installations. However projects, projects, projects = incentives, incentives, incentives. This market is fraught with government policy vulnerabilities but SolFocus having international presence will help. Luckily for these guys there is enough demand that they should be able to get a good foot in the market before that squeezing point comes. And when/if it does, they'll have something else figured out by then.
#4: Konarka "Awesome Sh%#!"
Konarka's PowerPlastic is awesome. It is also sh%#. It represents where the industry is going once efficiency of their technology improves. Their Power Plastic opens the door to a plethora of system design opportunities-giving an architect a sheet of plastic that makes power is like giving a kid a new Lego piece. Not just because it is flexible, but because it is hot. Sexy hot. Think iPod of solar panels. Then wait 10 years.
The efficiency is somewhere a few percent which isn't going to cut it but the fact that this material can be easily integrated into windows, roofing, and other BIPV applications gives it a whole lot of value to green designers. SkyShades is an example of a company already capitalizing on Konarka's advantageous form-factor. Things that suck: product lifetime. These panels go bad faster than silicon, CIGS, or CdTe. Efficiency is poor. But these are technology hurdles that can and will be solved with time...just how much time? They have demonstrated NREL certified efficiencies 6.4% so there's a rather limited upside to efficiency gains on module/systems level the next few years. But if they can break the 10% barrier traditional panel-mount PV (like solyndra, First Solar) will have to make some serious technology bounds to hold market share against a simpler, more powerful, cheaper, and sexier product that can be integrated into roofing materials where cost savings can be captured in replacement of traditional materials like shingles, siding, and windows. But that's a big IF.
